تحلیل چالش‌های آینده‌پژوهی توسعه گردشگری مذهبی در ایران بر مبنای برنامهٔ هفتم توسعه (قانون برنامه پنج‌سالهٔ هفتم پیشرفت جمهوری اسلامی ایران (۱۴۰۳ـ ۱۴۰۷))

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

کارشناس ارشد، شهر ابرکوه، استان یزد، ایران

10.22081/jtc.2026.73582.1065

چکیده

هدف از پژوهش پیش‌رو، آینده‌پژوهی راه‌های گسترش گردشگری مذهبی در ایران در جهت فراهم آوردن بستر شناختی و علمی مناسب برای برنامه‌ریزان و سیاست‌گذاران، با اتکا بر دیدگاه‌های نخبگان است. تعداد شرکت‌کنندگان در تحقیق براساس نرم‌افزار دلفی، 15 نفر از خبرگان حوزهٔ مدیریت جهانگردی و سازمان برنامه و بودجه بودند. به منظور اعتبارسنجی و اجماع دربارهٔ چالش‌های بااهمیت، از تحلیل دلفی فازی استفاده شده است. مرحلهٔ دوم با به‌کارگیری روش تحلیل اثرهای متقابل و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک، چالش‌های شناسایی‌شده در مرحله نخست تحلیل ساختاری شدند. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان می‌دهد نبود زیرساخت‌های رفاهی مناسب، مانند بیمهأ زائر، نبود مترجم غیرعربی‌زبان، تضاد فرهنگی گردشگران مذهبی با فرهنگ بومی ـ به‌ویژه در مجموعه‌های تفریحی، ییلاقی و زیرساخت‌های گردشگری شهری ـ و همچنین حمل‌ونقل نامناسب و ناکافی، از جمله تنگناهای موجود هستند که در توسعه نیافتن این نوع گردشگری نقشی مؤثر دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Challenges of Foresight in the Development of Religious Tourism in Iran Based on the Seventh Development Plan

نویسنده [English]

  • Seyed Shahabodin Hedayati
M.A. Holder, Abarkooh City, Yazd Province, Iran
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this study is to conduct a foresight analysis of strategies for the development of religious tourism in Iran in order to provide an appropriate cognitive and scientific framework for planners and policymakers, drawing on expert perspectives and in alignment with the Seventh Five-Year Development Plan of the Islamic Republic of Iran (2024–2028). The study participants consisted of 15 experts in tourism management and the Plan and Budget Organization, selected through the Delphi method. To validate and achieve consensus on the most significant challenges, the fuzzy Delphi technique was employed. In the second phase, the identified challenges were structurally analyzed using cross-impact analysis and the MICMAC software. The findings indicate that the lack of adequate welfare infrastructure—such as pilgrim insurance services—the absence of non-Arabic language translators, cultural conflicts between religious tourists and local communities (particularly in recreational, resort, and urban tourism facilities), as well as insufficient and inefficient transportation systems, constitute major constraints that significantly hinder the development of religious tourism in Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Seventh Development Plan
  • religious tourism
  • tourism development
  • foresight studies

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الهیات شهر
دوره 3، شماره 5 - شماره پیاپی 5
دوفصلنامه الهیات شهر سال سوم، شماره پنجم، بهار و تابستان ۱۴۰۴
فروردین 1404
صفحه 27-64

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 06 آذر 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 26 آذر 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 08 بهمن 1404
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 فروردین 1404

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